Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
